How the Raymond Davis affair is connected to the so-called "new Great Game" in Eurasia and how Pakistan should handle the situation.

Author's note: The reason why I have put some words in quotation marks is because it is referred to as such though some including I see it as a matter of survival for governments and countries. This post may be updated to fill in missing details and/or make corrections.

I want to start this geopolitical post by covering the incident in Lahore and my personal theories on what exactly happened based on all the sources that I have come across.
Though I could be wrong, I believe the entire incident was triggered by a misunderstanding.

I first thought of Raymond Davis in pictures of his court appearance to be a poor chap caught in the wrong place at the wrong time, but further evidence reported by various news sources make me believe the opposite, that he was on a spy mission. Consider the following points:

-Unconfirmed but various sources claim he could converse in Urdu the national language of Pakistan. Now certain sources claim he lived in Pakhtunkhwa and spoke fluent Pashto as well.

-He carried an unregistered weapon more particularly a 9mm Glock pistol. As uncertain as I am, my understanding is that these type of weapons are not popular in Pakistan. Even though local manufacturers can easily replicate them, local choices are mostly AK-47s and T-T pistols. Even amongst military divisions, this widely American used gun is not popular in Pakistan.

-The autopsies reveal that both men were shot in the back, ruling out the possibility that they were advancing towards him.

-Various sources claim Davis to have military training background and a history of working for the FBI.

-The equipment recovered from his car pictured here included GPS navigation, wireless phone tracking devices, binoculars as well as maps of sensitive bases/installations in Multan, Lahore and others.

-Sources also claim him to have been in Iraq and Afghanistan.







If one is to put these points together, Davis-or whatever his actual name may be-fits the perfect description of an undercover agent.

As many claim, I do believe that Faizan Haider and his brother Fahim were innocent since no criminal records were found on them and the weapon found on them was registered. Faizan and Fahim did indeed go to court with Faizan armed to protect himself from being a targeted witness in a family dispute that killed his brother about a month earlier.

Anyone familiar with Pakistan would know how complicated and dangerous family and tribal feuds can be. Those also familiar with the country would know how life threatening being a witness in a court can be as there have been cases of assignations on court witnesses even right after stepping out of the courtroom.
Police sources claimed that Faizan for this reason had registered his gun for the purpose of self-protection.

I believe when Fahim and Faizan exited the courtroom, Faizan carried his handgun to protect himself from any possible attack. As they left the court he kept his gun in handy in case an attack was waiting to happen.
As they continued their way on the motorbike to the hospital to attend to a relative, their path coincided with Raymond Davis', giving him the impression that they were following him.

At the signal light, Davis discovered Faizan's gun as the two men rode past him in the traffic red light.

When Faizan's gun was showing, it caused Davis, who was behind them, to panic thinking that his suspicion on them following him were correct and that he was about to face a surprise attack.

Upon this Davis opened fired out of the impression that he was defending himself from this surprise attack- and that's when his cover was blown.
From there Davis called for help and the SUV as we all know that came to aid him killed a third person as a result of reckless driving in a bid to save him. Since the vehicle turned back, Davis attempted to flee the scene which according to sources is standard operating procedure for American embassy and consulate employees in case of problems.

This is my perception of what happened in Lahore. But then there are many important questions to follow regarding Raymond Davis and the nature of this incident.

Most importantly where did Davis get the gun he shot the two men with? It was not registered according to local authorities nor is it a popular weapon of choice in Pakistan to my knowledge. So how exactly did he bring it into the country? Surely not through the airport where he'd be caught by security officials.

Thinking of this question brought back to my mind a specific incident described in these reports of armed foreigners; particularly Westerners carrying weapons which are also not popular choices in Pakistan as per their models.

One of those reports describes an incident in which Americans carrying M-4 machine guns and 9 MM Glock pistols- very similar to the type used by Davis. Again these weapons are not commonly manufactured nor often used in Pakistan perhaps due to copyright issues under international law or them being expensive weapons not affordable to most customers in a poor third world country.

That incident is just like the one we saw in Lahore of Americans mysteriously bringing weapons through the borders of Pakistan going undetected.
But the most notable incident amongst those reports which my attention was brought back to is of Americans caught by police in Pakhtunkhwa carrying M-4 rifles which also makes a brief mention of an Afghan national accompanying them without a visa.

To me this makes the answer quite clear. That the Americans are secretly transporting their weapons across the border from their bases in Afghanistan into Pakistan with the help of Afghans.
Smuggling is a well known activity which takes place across the Afghan-Pakistani border. Illegal items from drugs to others are constantly smuggled out of Afghanistan going undetected. This practice has been going on for many decades perhaps even before the Afghan wars began.

Now American weapons for Americans in Pakistan are also being smuggled with the help of Afghans since Pakistan does not issue rights or licenses to foreigners to carry weapons except in extremely rare and special cases.

Why Afghans would help Americans is something Pakistanis have failed to and still fail to understand. Afghanistan has always had an enmity towards Pakistan right from the time of it's independence in 1947. Till present day nothing has changed. It's this enmity that is the root of most political problems in Central Eurasia (I say Eurasia because it involves most of Europe and most of Asia) though I also think Western governments have been trying to take advantage of the situation in order to gain access to Central Asia's rich energy resources.

Pakistanis have failed to understand Afghan hostility towards their country and even fail to even acknowledge it's existence because they are blinded by the curtain of Pan-Islamism and the false belief that Muslims can never hate Muslims.

To understand this enmity and the whole geopolitical turmoil our region today faces, we have to take a look backwards in time.
Afghanistan is a country where tribalism and ethnic ultra-nationalism have always thrived. Most of the violence in the country is much owed to this ethnic and tribal nationalism. Since it's founding in 1747 AD, Afghanistan was ruled by ethnic Pakhtuns who have had a bad history with the other ethnic groups in the country.

Afghanistan's history of ethnic and tribal honor codes seek violence as a means of solving disputes.
Throughout much of it's history, Afghanistan's majority Pakhtuns have managed to keep the non-Pakhtun populations intact mostly through the use of brutal force.

And though there is tension amongst the non-Pakhtun ethnic groups of the country, they have stood united against what they see as a common enemy. At the same time, the ruling Pakhtun elites sought to "reunite" with their fellow ethnic Pakhtuns across the border.

Since Afghanistan has mostly always been under Pakhtun rule, these nationalist Pakhtun leaders tried to use the same force on the Pakistani government as a means of seizing Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan from Pakistan with their claim of the Durand Line Treaty being invalid as it divides Pakhtuns and Baloch through artificial borders.

These claims are nothing but false and are discussed in detail in this and this article.

Various Afghan regimes weather the royal family or the pro-Soviet communist regimes have sought to take these regions away from Pakistan through force.
However, being militarily inferior, they failed. This only further incited their hatred for Pakistan and their inability to take what they saw as "their lands."

Under the communist regimes, Afghanistan enjoyed military and political ties to the Soviet Union which stood by Afghanistan's false claims over Pakistani territory.
At many times Soviet built planes were used by the Afghan air force to breach into Pakistan's airspace and military confrontations were frequent.

To rid Soviet support to Afghanistan, the Pakistani government sought to topple the communist regime in Kabul via radical Islamist proxies who were already leading uprisings against the communist regime.
The USA saw this as a positive move as it too sought the downfall of pro-Soviet regimes around the world. China also welcomed this move as it had it's own share of historical feuds with the Soviet Union. With the anti-communist uprisings in Afghanistan slowly falling out of control, the communist Afghan regime sought the Soviet Union's military intervention to secure their control over the country.

Reluctantly, the Soviets planned a temporary occupation of Afghanistan with two main objectives:

1) Dispose of Hafizullah Amin the then prime minister who had been enforcing communist practices in the country through the use of brutal force which only gave popularity to anti-government uprisings.
After Amin was disposed of, they planned on installing a new dictator who would be more flexible and keep the country communist through social reforms instead of unpopular, forceful methods.

2) Getting rid of American/Arab/Pakistani backed Islamist rebels who threatened the rule of their communist allies in the country.

In December 1979, the Soviet Union sent it's forces into Afghanistan which is when the whole mess leading to today's political climax began.
The first objective was easily met and Amin was killed, but the second objective was costly and could not be achieved due to the strong support the Afghan Mujahideen received from the West, from Pakistan and the rest of the Muslim world.

Following the Soviet Union's departure in 1989 and even after it's downfall, the situation in Afghanistan intensified. The United States seeing it's objectives in Afghanistan had been met disengaged itself from the politics of that region.

But the instability gave advantages to the other ethnic groups of the country who sought to free themselves of Pakhtun domination. In doing so they forged an alliance best known as the Northern Alliance.
The Northern Alliance composed of ethnic Uzbeks, Tajiks and some Hazaras, received backing from Turkey, Iran, the Russian Federation and India. Fearing that the Northern Alliance was relying on it's arch-rivals for support and slowly turning Afghanistan as their (India, Russian Federation, Iran) proxy state, the Pakistani government sought to support the Pakhtun Taliban who it felt would neutralize the proxies of it's enemies.

The Taliban controlled much of Afghanistan until 2001. Under the Taliban much of the drug production was diminished. Also during this time many militant groups most notably Al-Queda set up bases in Afghanistan. Al-Queda had a history of hitting American installations throughout the world but the Taliban refused to handover their leaders.

Then the 911 attacks occurred. America claims it to be the work of Al-Queda, though I personally feel it was the work of secret elements in the American government and the invasion of Afghanistan was a means of creating a new route to Central Asia's rich oil reserves and getting rid of Al-Queda once and for all.

After the fall of the Soviet Union many oil rich republics in Central Asia sought to export their energy and enhance their economies.
The West also was keen on this and wanted to buy their energy resources, however Central Asia is a landlocked region and all paths leading out of it were blocked by countries hostile to the West. The Russian Federation in the northwest, the Islamic Republic or Iran in the south and Taliban controlled Afghanistan also in the south.
If I'm not mistaken, Pakistan was keen on becoming a transit zone for Central Asian goods and resources to the world since it would be profitable to it's economy.

The West thought of it as a long process and should start soon which is why I feel they are in Afghanistan today.
But their presence has not made things much better for themselves and others except for some stability. The worst part is they have empowered tribalist, ultra-nationalistic Pakhtuns who don't want to share their power with other ethnic groups.

And if things cannot get anymore worse, NATO has tried to forge a government between arch-rival Tajiks and Pakhtuns who do not want to work together and are fighting each other for dominance. Across Afghanistan ethnic violence between Pakhtuns and non-Pakhtuns is still occurring, only adding more to the instability of the country and the region.

The current NATO occupation has only put most things back on square one and that is semi-literate, tribalist Pakhtuns are back in power and only have the same objective: Take Balochistan and Pakhtunkhwa away from Pakistan.

This is not to suggest that Tajiks are anymore favorable to Pakistan than much of the Pakhtun population. The Tajiks despise Pakistan and the Pakhtuns whom they see as Pakistan's puppets. Additionally the Tajiks maintain good cultural, linguistic and political ties with the Shia regime in Iran which too is hostile towards Sunni majority Pakistan. The Pakhtuns despise the Tajiks as they see them as "foreigners" in Afghanistan and they despise Pakistan for holding on to what they see as "their lands."

Weather the royal family or the communists up till the present Afghan regimes, each one has had the prime objective of controlling Pakhtunkhwa (then known as NWFP) and Balochistan.

So how does this all connect to Raymond Davis and the incident in Lahore? Going back through my post, I mentioned Afghans helping Americans smuggle their weapons into Pakistan and help them in their covert spy missions because they are hostile towards Pakistan and see it as an enemy illegally occupying "their lands."

Americans are sending their citizens for both security and covert operations. Various reports claim American "diplomats" in sensitive areas of Pakistan. The West fears that the rising instability in the region makes Pakistan's nuclear weapons a threat to international security.
In this post, I covered the false media hysteria behind Pakistan's nuclear weapons falling into the hands of extremists. I also stressed in this post that Pakistan should not sign any nuclear disarmament treaties that would make it a hostage to foreign aggression.







The prime objective must be to gain maximum knowledge on the country's nuclear arsenal and the Afghans would be more than happy to help. Creating problems for Pakistan has been the main objective for every Afghan government.

What Pakistan can do to deal with the situation:
-In regards to armed foreigners in the country, Pakistan needs to step up it's case to NATO that it will not tolerate foreigners carrying illegal weapons on it's soil.
Right after the Lahore incident, the government should have summoned the ambassador in Islamabad and lodged a public protest as it did in 2008 when NATO troops illegally crossed into Pakistan.

Additionally, Pakistan needs to impose a ban on foreigners moving in between cities on the ground. The movement of foreign nationals through sparsely populated provincial areas will make their activities and movements difficult to monitor.
All domestic movement in between cities by foreign nationals should be by local airlines.

Currently the US embassy does use Beechcraft type planes for transporting their staff within Pakistan. These Beechcraft series planes seen here are marked in the same livery as the two famous American presidential transport Boeing 747-200s which are famously known for their call sign Air Force One. What are the chances of transporting spies and illegal items on those Beechcraft planes? This is why I think they should be restricted to flying on local airlines. If they fear flying with normal passengers due to anti-American sentiment in Pakistan, then they should charter their flights.

By imposing such a restriction on domestic movement by foreigners, the Pakistani government and military should issue strict warnings of legal consequences for those who fail to comply.

The Vienna conventions do not permit foreigners, diplomats or others, to violate the laws of the host country therefore it's important to stress that foreigners be barred from breaking traffic laws and carrying illegal weapons.

Should diplomats and other embassy employees fail to comply with Pakistan's weapons restrictions, the rangers should be made to create blockades around diplomatic enclaves and ensure anyone exiting is not armed or carrying any suspicious items.

Any foreigner exiting the enclaves should be made to identify themselves and the purpose of their movements.
Such restrictions should not be difficult for the Western governments to comply with.

Recently Poland came up with a new referendum making espionage a crime in the country by foreigners. Pakistan needs to pass on the same referendum and adopt capital punishment for spies weather locals or foreigners. Pakistan is also not a signatory to treaties in the Vienna conventions that conflict with domestic laws. So weather a spy comes disguised as a diplomat, he/she should not be liable to expulsion but civil prosecution once a referendum making spying on the state a punishable crime is legalized.

Also the Pakistani people need to pledge their support to the government on this stance if they believe in preventing such incidents from happening again. Simply hounding and blaming the government doesn't work and showing some support at this stage for prosecuting Davis would be useful.

-Regarding Afghanistan and it's constant meddling in Pakistan, the Pakistani government needs to ensure the Durand Line treaty is not violated or any false claims be made on it. The Pakistani government needs to clarify this issue and must do so at the next UN submit in order to silence these false claims coming out of Kabul.

Once it's clarified, any further falsified claims on Pakistani territory should be brought forward to NATO and the UN as a complaint and those in the Afghan government making these claims should be held accountable for trying to break international law and violate internationally recognized borders.

To ensure peace and stability in Afghanistan, NATO needs to put in a multi-ethnic government in Afghanistan (see my world issues and politics blog) and Pakistan needs to support such a move to prevent Afghanistan from again becoming a proxy war theater.

Furthermore; Pakistan needs to take a tougher stance against Afghanistan for trying to create problems weather through helping Western agencies or fueling the rebellion in Balochistan.

This has been going on ever since 1947 and temporarily stopped during the Afghan civil war.
As a start Pakistan needs to send back all Afghan refugees and seal the border to prevent a further wave of refugees from coming. Even those Afghans residing in other parts of Pakistan need to be sent back. Pakistan should also seal Afghanistan's access to the outside world should it's citizens continue creating problems as they are by helping foreign agencies and further inciting the insurgency in Balochistan.

Any military incursion by tribalists or the Afghan military should be dealt with a harsh response.

I explained in this post, the presence of armed foreigners; especially private security agencies outside of embassy grounds is somewhat exaggerated. Of course it doesn't mean that I rule it out completely as Raymond Davis is proof of that. There are also many reports of armed diplomats interrogating locals at gunpoint in the links; hence it's important to enforce our policy of banning firearms to foreigners.

-Also there is a lot of media hysteria in America against Pakistan and vice versa. The American media is filled with conspiracies against Pakistan's ISI for "secretly supporting terrorists" while the Pakistani media is filled with conspiracy theories of the same nature. That America is supporting terrorism inside the region to destabilize it.

I think it's important that the Pakistani foreign ministry and people to take up the issue of false media hysteria and try to defuse it on both sides.

In the end Raymond Davis, innocent or not should be given a fair trial. Everyone even murders must be given a chance to be judged.
It's important to note that Davis was found with spy equipment and by now there is little doubt he is a spy, so those Pakistanis who call for his execution should reconsider that they are asking to kill a valuable prisoner with useful information and who may be the key to thwarting a foreign spy network(s) in the country.

There is also the problem of pro-Western ultra-liberal leftist fifth columnists mainly from the Muhajir community who are as usual defending Raymond Davis and America's reckless policies in the region. The liberal upper class Muhajir fifth columnists always have everything negative to express against Pakistan.

It's important the lies of these liberal lynch mobs be exposed before they mislead the educated elite class of Pakistan who are prone to such self-hating ideas towards their country.

Also important is that the government should ask the people weather they are willing to release Davis in exchange for aid or are willing to sacrifice aid in return for justice. Because currently the people as usual are blaming the government of submitting to American pressure instead of accepting reality that the Americans are cutting off aid due to Davis's detention; hence the people have to choose between one or the other.

The Pakistani government has no control over America's decision to cut aid so the choice must be with the people to keep and punish Davis, release him in exchange for continuing aid, or to come up with an alternate solution weather cutting support to NATO in Afghanistan or some other.

Post update: I found the following by an anonymous person regarding the SUV that hit and killed Ibadur Rehman which should interest readers. Note: This does not necessarily represent my opinions on the issue:

Dear All,

Someone I happened to meet raised a point about the other vehicle (the SUV)
which killed a motorcyclist and is said to have been coming to the rescue of
Raymond Davis. This person said that RD and the SUV were traveling
together when they realized that they were being followed by the two men
killed by RD. The SUV was the crucial one because it was carrying sensitive
material and RD enacted this drama to divert public attention. He succeeded
because the SUV got away to the extent that the people riding it could even
leave the country on the sly while RD has grabbed all attention. Who were
they and what was their mission? The timing when the SUV made its appearance
betrays that the claim that it was a rescue vehicle is ytash and meant to
mislead the media.

Does anyone know more about the SUV and its travelers?